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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.43+6.28vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland1.28+5.97vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College1.45+4.39vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont1.27+4.18vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.48+6.14vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University1.37+1.94vs Predicted
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7Tufts University0.93+2.53vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University1.08+0.77vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.21-0.42vs Predicted
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10Cornell University0.63+0.57vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College-0.06+2.22vs Predicted
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12University of Southern California1.47-4.60vs Predicted
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13Boston University1.44-5.46vs Predicted
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14Eckerd College1.62-7.13vs Predicted
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15Northwestern University0.44-3.53vs Predicted
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16Fordham University0.99-6.63vs Predicted
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17George Washington University0.89-7.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.28Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.430.1%1st Place
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7.97St. Mary's College of Maryland1.280.1%1st Place
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7.39Connecticut College1.450.1%1st Place
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8.18University of Vermont1.270.1%1st Place
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11.14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.480.0%1st Place
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7.94Northeastern University1.370.1%1st Place
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9.53Tufts University0.930.1%1st Place
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8.77Christopher Newport University1.080.1%1st Place
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8.58U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.210.1%1st Place
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10.57Cornell University0.630.0%1st Place
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13.22SUNY Maritime College-0.060.0%1st Place
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7.4University of Southern California1.470.1%1st Place
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7.54Boston University1.440.1%1st Place
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6.87Eckerd College1.620.1%1st Place
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11.47Northwestern University0.440.0%1st Place
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9.37Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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9.78George Washington University0.890.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon | 9.7% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Joseph Marynowski | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| Duncan Craine | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.1% |
| Christian Cushman | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 1.4% |
| Calvin Marsh | 2.1% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 13.5% |
| Joshua Dillon | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| Blake Vogel | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.9% |
| Joshua Bendura | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.3% |
| Tomas Riccio | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 2.4% |
| Marcus Greco | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 8.2% |
| Luke Barker | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 13.8% | 33.7% |
| Luke Harris | 7.4% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.4% |
| Tiare Sierra | 8.3% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 1.8% |
| Pj Rodrigues | 9.6% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Nicholas Chesemore | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 11.0% | 13.6% | 13.8% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.7% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 3.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 5.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.