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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.16+5.41vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.50+6.99vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston4.61+2.04vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University3.54+5.03vs Predicted
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5Boston College4.43+0.52vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College3.68+2.54vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College3.76+1.09vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.60+0.57vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.30+1.07vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island3.92-2.60vs Predicted
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11Tufts University3.29-0.94vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.79-0.24vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont2.93-1.56vs Predicted
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14Eckerd College3.83-6.04vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida2.80-3.30vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.17-2.15vs Predicted
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17Harvard University3.67-8.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.41St. Mary's College of Maryland4.160.1%1st Place
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8.99Yale University3.500.1%1st Place
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5.04College of Charleston4.610.1%1st Place
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9.03Old Dominion University3.540.0%1st Place
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5.52Boston College4.430.1%1st Place
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8.54Connecticut College3.680.1%1st Place
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8.09Dartmouth College3.760.1%1st Place
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8.57Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.600.1%1st Place
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10.07U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.300.0%1st Place
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7.4University of Rhode Island3.920.1%1st Place
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10.06Tufts University3.290.0%1st Place
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11.76University of Pennsylvania2.790.0%1st Place
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11.44University of Vermont2.930.0%1st Place
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7.96Eckerd College3.830.1%1st Place
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11.7University of South Florida2.800.0%1st Place
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13.85Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.170.0%1st Place
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8.58Harvard University3.670.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sara Morgan Watters | 11.1% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Claire Dennis | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 1.9% |
| Allison Blecher | 14.8% | 14.0% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Katrina Williams | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.4% |
| Anne Haeger | 13.2% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Maggie Shea | 5.1% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 2.0% |
| Rebecca Dellenbaugh | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 0.8% |
| Caroline Patten | 6.5% | 4.2% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 2.3% |
| Krysta Rohde | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 5.5% |
| Amy Hawkins | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.1% |
| Catherine Swanson | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 5.2% |
| Amanda Johnson | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 13.8% | 13.7% |
| Kimberly Kaull | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 11.8% |
| Cara Vavolotis | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Rachael Silverstein | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 15.1% |
| Jamie Curran | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 17.0% | 34.3% |
| Emily Lambert | 4.3% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 2.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.