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📊 Prediction Accuracy
63.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Berkeley0.20+3.47vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley0.66+1.45vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz0.48+0.94vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05-1.11vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego-1.13+2.21vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.02-1.11vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles-1.38+0.57vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University-1.79+0.48vs Predicted
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9University of California at Davis-1.89-0.24vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California-0.60-4.07vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University-1.79-2.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.47University of California at Berkeley0.200.1%1st Place
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3.45University of California at Berkeley0.660.2%1st Place
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3.94University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.1%1st Place
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2.89Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.3%1st Place
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7.21University of California at San Diego-1.130.0%1st Place
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4.89Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.020.1%1st Place
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7.57University of California at Los Angeles-1.380.0%1st Place
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8.48Arizona State University-1.790.0%1st Place
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8.76University of California at Davis-1.890.0%1st Place
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5.93University of Southern California-0.600.1%1st Place
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8.41Arizona State University-1.790.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilton Lawton | 10.4% | 13.5% | 12.0% | 15.2% | 15.9% | 13.2% | 9.8% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Will Cornell | 20.4% | 18.5% | 17.6% | 14.8% | 11.3% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| George Soliman | 14.9% | 15.2% | 16.5% | 15.6% | 12.7% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Garrett Henderson | 27.1% | 21.8% | 19.5% | 12.7% | 10.1% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Audra Spokas-jaros | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 14.0% | 14.0% | 14.8% | 14.0% | 8.8% |
| Florence Duff | 9.1% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 13.8% | 13.3% | 14.9% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Conrad Kistler | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 11.8% | 14.8% | 16.1% | 15.7% | 11.8% |
| Erin Welker | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 12.0% | 16.6% | 19.2% | 24.3% |
| Luke Melvin | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 10.6% | 15.4% | 20.7% | 30.2% |
| Lara Granucci | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 13.7% | 13.6% | 13.7% | 10.1% | 6.6% | 1.4% |
| Camden Wacha | 1.3% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 12.8% | 16.0% | 20.4% | 22.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.