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📊 Prediction Accuracy
54.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Arizona State University-1.79+7.18vs Predicted
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2Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05+0.37vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.02+1.40vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley0.20-0.05vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego-1.13+1.60vs Predicted
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6University of California at Davis-1.89+2.22vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California-0.60-1.68vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University-1.79-0.10vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz0.48-5.63vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles-1.38-2.97vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley-2.18-2.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.18Arizona State University-1.790.0%1st Place
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2.37Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.4%1st Place
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4.4Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.020.1%1st Place
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3.95University of California at Berkeley0.200.1%1st Place
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6.6University of California at San Diego-1.130.0%1st Place
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8.22University of California at Davis-1.890.0%1st Place
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5.32University of Southern California-0.600.1%1st Place
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7.9Arizona State University-1.790.0%1st Place
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3.37University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.2%1st Place
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7.03University of California at Los Angeles-1.380.0%1st Place
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8.65University of California at Berkeley-2.180.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camden Wacha | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 10.9% | 14.9% | 16.2% | 20.4% | 16.5% |
| Garrett Henderson | 35.7% | 26.2% | 17.2% | 11.3% | 6.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Florence Duff | 10.3% | 11.6% | 16.8% | 14.4% | 15.1% | 14.3% | 8.4% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Wilton Lawton | 13.8% | 14.5% | 16.3% | 17.4% | 14.9% | 10.9% | 7.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Audra Spokas-jaros | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 12.9% | 15.7% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 4.6% |
| Luke Melvin | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 10.5% | 13.8% | 13.9% | 18.1% | 21.8% |
| Lara Granucci | 7.9% | 7.1% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 15.0% | 14.0% | 12.4% | 9.9% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.6% |
| Erin Welker | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 8.5% | 12.4% | 13.8% | 14.4% | 15.9% | 17.5% |
| George Soliman | 17.9% | 23.1% | 16.4% | 15.0% | 12.3% | 8.4% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Conrad Kistler | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 11.8% | 14.1% | 12.8% | 15.6% | 10.8% | 8.6% |
| Dante Drolet | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 15.8% | 19.5% | 29.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.