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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
8
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1McGill University-0.67+4.16vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont0.76+0.74vs Predicted
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3Middlebury College-0.26+1.47vs Predicted
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4University of Massachusetts at Amherst0.08-0.12vs Predicted
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5Williams College-0.60+0.12vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont0.19-2.37vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont-0.27-2.47vs Predicted
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9Middlebury College-1.45-2.55vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.16McGill University-0.670.1%1st Place
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2.74University of Vermont0.760.3%1st Place
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4.47Middlebury College-0.260.1%1st Place
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3.88University of Massachusetts at Amherst0.080.1%1st Place
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5.12Williams College-0.600.1%1st Place
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3.63University of Vermont0.190.2%1st Place
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4.53University of Vermont-0.270.1%1st Place
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6.45Middlebury College-1.450.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marguerite Deseau | 6.8% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 12.3% | 13.7% | 16.7% | 16.4% | 16.6% |
| Audrey Commerford | 28.8% | 23.5% | 19.6% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 0.3% |
| Penelope Weekes | 11.4% | 10.4% | 14.1% | 13.6% | 14.4% | 14.3% | 13.9% | 7.9% |
| William Delong | 14.3% | 16.8% | 15.5% | 14.6% | 13.8% | 12.8% | 7.7% | 4.5% |
| Felix Nusbaum | 7.3% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 15.0% | 14.3% | 18.9% | 14.8% |
| William Denker | 17.4% | 17.4% | 15.5% | 16.5% | 12.6% | 11.5% | 6.5% | 2.6% |
| Ethan Stabenow | 10.6% | 11.6% | 11.9% | 15.2% | 13.2% | 14.4% | 14.1% | 9.0% |
| Helen Coughlin | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 7.9% | 11.5% | 19.9% | 44.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.