← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
77.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of Vermont-0.28+1.53vs Predicted
-
2University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.11+2.11vs Predicted
-
3University of Vermont-1.31+1.38vs Predicted
-
4Middlebury College-1.93+1.47vs Predicted
-
5Williams College-1.69-0.05vs Predicted
-
6McGill University-1.50-1.29vs Predicted
-
7Middlebury College-1.88-1.49vs Predicted
-
8University of Vermont-1.86-2.57vs Predicted
-
9Middlebury College-3.37-1.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
2.53University of Vermont-0.280.3%1st Place
-
4.11University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.110.1%1st Place
-
4.38University of Vermont-1.310.1%1st Place
-
5.47Middlebury College-1.930.1%1st Place
-
4.95Williams College-1.690.1%1st Place
-
4.71McGill University-1.500.1%1st Place
-
5.51Middlebury College-1.880.1%1st Place
-
5.43University of Vermont-1.860.1%1st Place
-
7.91Middlebury College-3.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ocean Smith | 34.1% | 24.3% | 16.9% | 12.8% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Cole Perra | 11.5% | 16.3% | 16.4% | 14.1% | 15.0% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 5.5% | 2.1% |
| Will Broseman | 11.9% | 13.2% | 12.7% | 15.0% | 13.7% | 12.8% | 11.6% | 7.0% | 2.1% |
| Aengus Onken | 6.8% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 13.3% | 15.6% | 17.3% | 7.7% |
| Max Harthorne | 8.4% | 11.1% | 12.4% | 12.6% | 11.7% | 12.2% | 13.7% | 11.8% | 6.1% |
| Alex Anderson | 10.0% | 11.1% | 12.5% | 11.9% | 14.5% | 14.6% | 12.6% | 9.6% | 3.2% |
| Kate Adams | 7.6% | 5.8% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 14.9% | 15.5% | 16.6% | 8.0% |
| Cameron Luck | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 12.6% | 14.3% | 17.2% | 8.2% |
| Will Levy | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 14.5% | 62.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.