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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont-0.28+1.55vs Predicted
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2University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.11+2.11vs Predicted
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3McGill University-1.50+1.78vs Predicted
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4Middlebury College-1.88+1.41vs Predicted
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5Middlebury College-1.93+0.42vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont-1.86-0.60vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont-1.31-2.68vs Predicted
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8Middlebury College-3.37-0.08vs Predicted
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9Williams College-1.69-3.89vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.55University of Vermont-0.280.3%1st Place
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4.11University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.110.1%1st Place
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4.78McGill University-1.500.1%1st Place
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5.41Middlebury College-1.880.1%1st Place
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5.42Middlebury College-1.930.1%1st Place
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5.4University of Vermont-1.860.1%1st Place
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4.32University of Vermont-1.310.1%1st Place
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7.92Middlebury College-3.370.0%1st Place
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5.11Williams College-1.690.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ocean Smith | 33.9% | 25.0% | 16.3% | 12.1% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Cole Perra | 12.7% | 14.5% | 16.8% | 15.4% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 5.0% | 2.0% |
| Alex Anderson | 9.2% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 11.6% | 14.8% | 12.3% | 13.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% |
| Kate Adams | 6.4% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 14.2% | 12.4% | 17.6% | 7.9% |
| Aengus Onken | 6.8% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 14.1% | 17.0% | 8.8% |
| Cameron Luck | 7.6% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 12.0% | 14.3% | 16.7% | 15.7% | 6.8% |
| Will Broseman | 12.8% | 12.1% | 13.1% | 14.5% | 17.3% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 1.5% |
| Will Levy | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 7.8% | 13.7% | 62.7% |
| Max Harthorne | 8.7% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 11.4% | 16.1% | 13.3% | 12.5% | 6.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.