← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Stanford University3.39+2.77vs Predicted
-
2University of Pennsylvania2.06+5.79vs Predicted
-
3Fordham University0.99+8.65vs Predicted
-
4Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.12+3.32vs Predicted
-
5Boston College2.82+0.11vs Predicted
-
6Cornell University2.69-0.48vs Predicted
-
7Boston University1.44+2.85vs Predicted
-
8University of Wisconsin0.86+3.77vs Predicted
-
9Dartmouth College2.55-3.05vs Predicted
-
10Old Dominion University0.81+2.22vs Predicted
-
11University of South Florida1.86-2.54vs Predicted
-
12Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-1.30vs Predicted
-
13North Carolina State University-0.05+1.34vs Predicted
-
14Harvard University2.47-8.01vs Predicted
-
15University of Hawaii1.09-3.97vs Predicted
-
16Bowdoin College1.49-6.26vs Predicted
-
17St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75-4.62vs Predicted
-
18University of Texas-2.13-0.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.77Stanford University3.390.2%1st Place
-
7.79University of Pennsylvania2.060.0%1st Place
-
11.65Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
-
7.32Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.120.1%1st Place
-
5.11Boston College2.820.1%1st Place
-
5.52Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
-
9.85Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
-
11.77University of Wisconsin0.860.0%1st Place
-
5.95Dartmouth College2.550.1%1st Place
-
12.22Old Dominion University0.810.0%1st Place
-
8.46University of South Florida1.860.1%1st Place
-
10.7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.0%1st Place
-
14.34North Carolina State University-0.050.0%1st Place
-
5.99Harvard University2.470.1%1st Place
-
11.03University of Hawaii1.090.0%1st Place
-
9.74Bowdoin College1.490.0%1st Place
-
12.38St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.0%1st Place
-
17.4University of Texas-2.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 20.8% | 18.7% | 14.1% | 12.0% | 11.9% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 8.1% | 0.9% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 6.8% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 14.3% | 12.8% | 12.4% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 10.6% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 12.1% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tiare Sierra | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Mary Castellini | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 9.4% | 1.3% |
| Sarah Young | 7.7% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gianna Dewey | 2.3% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 13.7% | 11.5% | 1.2% |
| Kay Brunsvold | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 0.3% |
| Evelyn Hannah | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 14.1% | 34.6% | 7.6% |
| Cordelia Burn | 10.3% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Vivian Bonsager | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 0.5% |
| Kyra Phelan | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 0.3% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 12.1% | 14.0% | 13.2% | 1.9% |
| Sophia Herrada | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 5.1% | 85.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.