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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.06+6.41vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.55+3.64vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.29+3.44vs Predicted
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4Yale University3.12-0.15vs Predicted
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5Tulane University2.37+1.05vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University2.03+1.29vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont0.53+5.79vs Predicted
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8Jacksonville University1.65+0.52vs Predicted
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9Tufts University0.84+2.70vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.26+0.41vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island1.84-2.92vs Predicted
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12Clemson University0.79+0.15vs Predicted
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13College of Charleston2.04-5.96vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.53-1.51vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University0.79-3.12vs Predicted
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16U. S. Naval Academy1.19-5.53vs Predicted
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17Northwestern University0.12-2.73vs Predicted
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18Rollins College-0.08-3.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.41Roger Williams University2.060.1%1st Place
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5.64Georgetown University2.550.1%1st Place
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6.44Brown University2.290.1%1st Place
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3.85Yale University3.120.2%1st Place
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6.05Tulane University2.370.1%1st Place
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7.29Northeastern University2.030.1%1st Place
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12.79University of Vermont0.530.0%1st Place
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8.52Jacksonville University1.650.0%1st Place
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11.7Tufts University0.840.0%1st Place
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10.41George Washington University1.260.0%1st Place
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8.08University of Rhode Island1.840.1%1st Place
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12.15Clemson University0.790.0%1st Place
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7.04College of Charleston2.040.1%1st Place
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12.49U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.530.0%1st Place
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11.88Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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10.47U. S. Naval Academy1.190.0%1st Place
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14.27Northwestern University0.120.0%1st Place
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14.54Rollins College-0.080.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucy Meagher | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Piper Holthus | 9.1% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Katharine Doble | 8.8% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 21.5% | 19.5% | 14.5% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Gardner | 10.7% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Eva Ermlich | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Ella Towner | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 13.1% | 11.8% |
| Emily Allen | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Maisie MacGillivray | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 4.6% |
| Avery Canavan | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 2.2% |
| Kytalin Hendrickson | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Nilah Miller | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 7.8% |
| Emma Tallman | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Odell | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 13.6% | 11.2% | 9.3% |
| Grace Watlington | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 6.4% |
| Ava Farley | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 2.8% |
| Grace Bray | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 11.8% | 16.3% | 25.3% |
| Julia Scott | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 15.7% | 28.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.