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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.12+2.86vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy1.19+8.49vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.06+4.10vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston2.04+2.86vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.55+0.24vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island1.84+1.71vs Predicted
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7Clemson University0.79+4.66vs Predicted
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8Tulane University2.37-2.22vs Predicted
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9Rollins College-0.08+5.65vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University2.03-2.80vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.57+1.63vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University1.65-3.26vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont0.53-0.51vs Predicted
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14Brown University1.28-4.40vs Predicted
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15Northwestern University0.12-1.07vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University0.79-4.17vs Predicted
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17Tufts University0.90-5.50vs Predicted
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18George Washington University1.26-8.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.86Yale University3.120.2%1st Place
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10.49U. S. Naval Academy1.190.0%1st Place
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7.1Roger Williams University2.060.1%1st Place
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6.86College of Charleston2.040.1%1st Place
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5.24Georgetown University2.550.1%1st Place
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7.71University of Rhode Island1.840.1%1st Place
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11.66Clemson University0.790.0%1st Place
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5.78Tulane University2.370.1%1st Place
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14.65Rollins College-0.080.0%1st Place
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7.2Northeastern University2.030.1%1st Place
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12.63U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.570.0%1st Place
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8.74Jacksonville University1.650.0%1st Place
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12.49University of Vermont0.530.0%1st Place
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9.6Brown University1.280.0%1st Place
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13.93Northwestern University0.120.0%1st Place
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11.83Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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11.5Tufts University0.900.0%1st Place
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9.74George Washington University1.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mia Nicolosi | 20.6% | 18.2% | 14.8% | 13.8% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ava Farley | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 1.8% |
| Lucy Meagher | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Emma Tallman | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Piper Holthus | 13.4% | 12.5% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kytalin Hendrickson | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Nilah Miller | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 6.1% |
| Samantha Gardner | 10.6% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julia Scott | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 13.2% | 16.3% | 30.0% |
| Eva Ermlich | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Ella Demand | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 13.0% | 12.5% | 10.8% |
| Emily Allen | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 1.0% | 0.7% |
| Ella Towner | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 11.4% |
| Sidney Moyer | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% |
| Grace Bray | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 16.8% | 22.8% |
| Grace Watlington | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 7.2% |
| Kiana Beachy | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 5.2% |
| Avery Canavan | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 1.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.