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📊 Prediction Accuracy
5.6%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.64+4.09vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.33+4.06vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.90+8.72vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island3.23+2.33vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.69+3.29vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University2.00+5.11vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+2.52vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.06+2.79vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University3.10-2.30vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College1.59+2.84vs Predicted
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11Tulane University2.45-1.55vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy2.99-4.44vs Predicted
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13Florida State University2.12-2.53vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-7.03vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68-6.70vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute1.91-4.44vs Predicted
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17Eckerd College1.64-4.37vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan0.53-2.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.09Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
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6.06Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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11.72George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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6.33University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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8.29Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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11.11Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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9.52Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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10.79University of Pennsylvania2.060.0%1st Place
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6.7Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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12.84Connecticut College1.590.0%1st Place
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9.45Tulane University2.450.1%1st Place
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7.56U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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10.47Florida State University2.120.0%1st Place
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6.97St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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8.3Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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11.56Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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12.63Eckerd College1.640.0%1st Place
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15.61University of Michigan0.530.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 14.5% | 12.7% | 13.1% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Guthrie Braun | 9.5% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 5.4% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 10.9% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Bridget Green | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 4.8% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 1.9% |
| Sofia Segalla | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 3.4% |
| Carlos de Castro | 8.4% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Skylor Sweet | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 15.9% | 11.5% |
| Kelly Holthus | 5.4% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 2.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Peter Foley | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 2.5% |
| Owen Hennessey | 8.3% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Rayne Duff | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 5.6% |
| Jordan Vieira | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 14.0% | 10.7% |
| Jack Homa | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 10.0% | 13.3% | 49.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.