← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Brown University3.33+5.14vs Predicted
-
2Tulane University2.45+7.55vs Predicted
-
3Harvard University3.64+2.02vs Predicted
-
4Northeastern University2.00+6.97vs Predicted
-
5University of Rhode Island3.23+1.32vs Predicted
-
6U. S. Naval Academy2.99+1.24vs Predicted
-
7Roger Williams University3.10-0.23vs Predicted
-
8Cornell University2.69+0.23vs Predicted
-
9George Washington University1.90+2.54vs Predicted
-
10St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-2.53vs Predicted
-
11Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68-2.52vs Predicted
-
12University of Pennsylvania2.06-0.76vs Predicted
-
13Florida State University2.12-2.54vs Predicted
-
14Webb Institute1.91-2.84vs Predicted
-
15Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-5.51vs Predicted
-
16Connecticut College1.59-3.27vs Predicted
-
17Eckerd College1.64-4.42vs Predicted
-
18University of Michigan0.53-2.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.14Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
-
9.55Tulane University2.450.0%1st Place
-
5.02Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
-
10.97Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
-
6.32University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
-
7.24U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
-
6.77Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
-
8.23Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
-
11.54George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
-
7.47St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
-
8.48Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
-
11.24University of Pennsylvania2.060.0%1st Place
-
10.46Florida State University2.120.0%1st Place
-
11.16Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
-
9.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
-
12.73Connecticut College1.590.0%1st Place
-
12.58Eckerd College1.640.0%1st Place
-
15.61University of Michigan0.530.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guthrie Braun | 10.8% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Kelly Holthus | 3.6% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 1.0% |
| Justin Callahan | 13.4% | 13.3% | 13.9% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 4.9% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 10.7% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Carlos de Castro | 8.0% | 11.0% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Bridget Green | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Tyler Wood | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 5.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% |
| Sofia Segalla | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 4.6% |
| Peter Foley | 3.1% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 3.3% |
| Rayne Duff | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 4.8% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| Skylor Sweet | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 16.1% | 10.8% |
| Jordan Vieira | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 12.1% | 13.8% | 11.2% |
| Jack Homa | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 8.9% | 13.5% | 50.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.