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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.64+4.11vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.33+4.10vs Predicted
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3Florida State University2.12+7.90vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+3.18vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+4.51vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.69+2.36vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.90+4.45vs Predicted
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8Tulane University2.45+1.23vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.99-1.86vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island3.23-3.47vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University2.00+0.25vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.91-0.18vs Predicted
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13Eckerd College1.64-0.68vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania2.06-3.42vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68-6.64vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan0.53-0.20vs Predicted
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17Roger Williams University3.10-10.10vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College1.59-5.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.11Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
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6.1Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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10.9Florida State University2.120.0%1st Place
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7.18St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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9.51Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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8.36Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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11.45George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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9.23Tulane University2.450.0%1st Place
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7.14U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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6.53University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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11.25Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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11.82Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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12.32Eckerd College1.640.0%1st Place
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10.58University of Pennsylvania2.060.0%1st Place
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8.36Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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15.8University of Michigan0.530.0%1st Place
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6.9Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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12.46Connecticut College1.590.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 14.4% | 14.0% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Guthrie Braun | 9.1% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Peter Foley | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 2.6% |
| Owen Hennessey | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.0% |
| Bridget Green | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Tyler Wood | 2.8% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 5.2% |
| Kelly Holthus | 4.6% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| Nathan Smith | 6.9% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 10.5% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.6% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 4.7% |
| Rayne Duff | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 8.5% |
| Jordan Vieira | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 13.7% | 9.5% |
| Sofia Segalla | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 4.3% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.6% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Jack Homa | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 9.3% | 15.0% | 50.8% |
| Carlos de Castro | 9.5% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Skylor Sweet | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 13.5% | 9.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.