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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+6.47vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island3.23+4.48vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+5.57vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.33+1.87vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.99+2.14vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University2.00+5.09vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.90+4.48vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University3.10-1.29vs Predicted
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9Tulane University2.45+0.24vs Predicted
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10Florida State University2.12+0.90vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.64-5.94vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.91-0.24vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.69-4.75vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania2.06-3.47vs Predicted
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150.53+0.67vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-6.37vs Predicted
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17Eckerd College1.64-4.34vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College1.59-5.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.47St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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6.48University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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8.57Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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5.87Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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7.14U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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11.09Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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11.48George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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6.71Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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9.24Tulane University2.450.0%1st Place
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10.9Florida State University2.120.0%1st Place
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5.06Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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11.76Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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8.25Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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10.53University of Pennsylvania2.060.0%1st Place
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15.670.530.0%1st Place
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9.63Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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12.66Eckerd College1.640.0%1st Place
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12.49Connecticut College1.590.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 7.8% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.0% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Guthrie Braun | 12.1% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Nathan Smith | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 4.7% |
| Tyler Wood | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 4.8% |
| Carlos de Castro | 8.9% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Kelly Holthus | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 0.7% |
| Peter Foley | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 4.3% |
| Justin Callahan | 15.1% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rayne Duff | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 12.2% | 11.2% | 6.1% |
| Bridget Green | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Sofia Segalla | 4.1% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 4.0% |
| Jack Homa | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 8.6% | 12.8% | 50.6% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| Jordan Vieira | 2.4% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 14.9% | 11.1% |
| Skylor Sweet | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 12.8% | 9.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.