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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.06+9.96vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+6.56vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.99+4.28vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+3.06vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University3.10+1.66vs Predicted
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6Tulane University2.45+3.25vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.90+4.46vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+1.42vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island3.23-2.79vs Predicted
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10Harvard University3.64-4.96vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.69-2.58vs Predicted
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12Eckerd College1.64+0.69vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College1.23+0.68vs Predicted
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14Webb Institute1.91-2.89vs Predicted
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15Florida State University2.12-4.49vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University2.00-4.90vs Predicted
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17Brown University3.33-10.93vs Predicted
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180.53-2.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.96University of Pennsylvania2.060.0%1st Place
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8.56Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
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7.28U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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7.06St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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6.66Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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9.25Tulane University2.450.0%1st Place
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11.46George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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9.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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6.21University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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5.04Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
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8.42Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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12.69Eckerd College1.640.0%1st Place
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13.68Connecticut College1.230.0%1st Place
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11.11Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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10.51Florida State University2.120.0%1st Place
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11.1Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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6.07Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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15.510.530.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia Segalla | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 6.9% | 4.0% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.4% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 9.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Carlos de Castro | 9.1% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Holthus | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 1.6% |
| Tyler Wood | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 5.4% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 0.9% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 8.5% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Justin Callahan | 14.6% | 12.2% | 12.9% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Jordan Vieira | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 12.4% | 14.4% | 10.4% |
| William Hurd | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 8.9% | 12.5% | 18.6% | 18.7% |
| Rayne Duff | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 7.1% | 4.9% |
| Peter Foley | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 4.8% | 3.1% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 4.4% |
| Guthrie Braun | 12.2% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Homa | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 18.1% | 45.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.