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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.06+9.95vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.33+4.07vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island3.23+3.43vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.99+3.07vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.64-0.09vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+2.30vs Predicted
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7Florida State University2.12+3.55vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-0.87vs Predicted
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9Tulane University2.45+0.24vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University2.00+1.27vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University3.10-4.09vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College1.23+2.05vs Predicted
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13Webb Institute1.91-1.74vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.69-6.02vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-5.55vs Predicted
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16Eckerd College1.64-3.50vs Predicted
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170.53-1.30vs Predicted
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18George Washington University1.90-6.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.95University of Pennsylvania2.060.0%1st Place
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6.07Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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6.43University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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7.07U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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4.91Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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8.3Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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10.55Florida State University2.120.0%1st Place
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7.13St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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9.24Tulane University2.450.0%1st Place
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11.27Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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6.91Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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14.05Connecticut College1.230.0%1st Place
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11.26Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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7.98Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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9.45Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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12.5Eckerd College1.640.0%1st Place
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15.70.530.0%1st Place
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11.26George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia Segalla | 3.4% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 3.8% |
| Guthrie Braun | 8.5% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 9.0% | 7.6% | 11.4% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 9.3% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Justin Callahan | 16.2% | 15.9% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.0% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Peter Foley | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 3.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 7.5% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Kelly Holthus | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 0.6% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 4.0% |
| Carlos de Castro | 8.5% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| William Hurd | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 11.7% | 21.2% | 19.9% |
| Rayne Duff | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 4.0% |
| Bridget Green | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 0.8% |
| Jordan Vieira | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 11.7% | 14.5% | 8.8% |
| Jack Homa | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 15.8% | 48.6% |
| Tyler Wood | 3.0% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 4.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.