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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.34+8.39vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.06+8.62vs Predicted
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3Harvard University2.87+4.41vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+3.78vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+1.69vs Predicted
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6Florida State University2.12+4.20vs Predicted
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7Tulane University2.45+1.79vs Predicted
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8Brown University2.63+0.04vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island3.23-3.25vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University3.10-3.50vs Predicted
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11Eckerd College1.64+1.17vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.77-0.05vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University2.00-2.61vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-5.23vs Predicted
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15George Washington University1.90-4.00vs Predicted
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16U. S. Naval Academy2.99-9.32vs Predicted
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170.53-1.43vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College1.23-4.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.39Cornell University2.340.0%1st Place
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10.62University of Pennsylvania2.060.0%1st Place
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7.41Harvard University2.870.1%1st Place
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7.78Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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6.69St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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10.2Florida State University2.120.0%1st Place
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8.79Tulane University2.450.1%1st Place
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8.04Brown University2.630.1%1st Place
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5.75University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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6.5Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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12.17Eckerd College1.640.0%1st Place
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11.95Webb Institute1.770.0%1st Place
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10.39Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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8.77Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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11.0George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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6.68U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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15.570.530.0%1st Place
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13.31Connecticut College1.230.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winborne Majette | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 1.1% |
| Sofia Segalla | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 2.8% |
| Robby Meek | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Sam Bruce | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Owen Hennessey | 10.0% | 11.3% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Peter Foley | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 3.3% |
| Kelly Holthus | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| Mason Stang | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 12.4% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Carlos de Castro | 10.4% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Vieira | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 11.9% | 12.9% | 8.6% |
| Calvin Schmid | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 12.5% | 11.9% | 7.5% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 2.9% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.2% |
| Tyler Wood | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 4.7% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.6% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Jack Homa | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 15.2% | 49.6% |
| William Hurd | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 17.5% | 15.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.