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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+5.90vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.34+7.47vs Predicted
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3Florida State University2.12+7.38vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+4.94vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island3.23+0.83vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.90+5.03vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.77+4.55vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.99-1.42vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University2.00+1.61vs Predicted
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10Harvard University2.87-2.64vs Predicted
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11Tulane University2.45-2.14vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68-3.76vs Predicted
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130.53+2.33vs Predicted
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14Brown University2.63-6.24vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College1.23-1.56vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University3.10-9.66vs Predicted
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17Eckerd College1.64-4.81vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania2.06-7.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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9.47Cornell University2.340.0%1st Place
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10.38Florida State University2.120.0%1st Place
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8.94Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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5.83University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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11.03George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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11.55Webb Institute1.770.0%1st Place
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6.58U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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10.61Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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7.36Harvard University2.870.1%1st Place
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8.86Tulane University2.450.1%1st Place
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8.24Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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15.330.530.0%1st Place
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7.76Brown University2.630.1%1st Place
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13.44Connecticut College1.230.0%1st Place
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6.34Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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12.19Eckerd College1.640.0%1st Place
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10.18University of Pennsylvania2.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 8.3% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Winborne Majette | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 1.3% |
| Peter Foley | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 2.1% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 1.5% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 12.5% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Tyler Wood | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 5.7% |
| Calvin Schmid | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 6.4% |
| Nathan Smith | 10.2% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 3.1% |
| Robby Meek | 9.1% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Kelly Holthus | 5.8% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.6% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Jack Homa | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 16.1% | 45.8% |
| Mason Stang | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| William Hurd | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 18.1% | 17.6% |
| Carlos de Castro | 10.2% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jordan Vieira | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 13.5% | 10.1% |
| Sofia Segalla | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 3.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.