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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.79+5.54vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.44+5.87vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.45+4.82vs Predicted
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4University of Miami2.27+4.23vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.29-0.26vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University1.61+4.92vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63-0.07vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College2.59-0.98vs Predicted
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9North Carolina State University1.31+3.01vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston2.35-1.75vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin0.86+2.55vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University2.54-4.41vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara1.77-2.89vs Predicted
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14University of South Florida1.51-3.03vs Predicted
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15Fordham University1.90-5.28vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University1.08-3.17vs Predicted
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17Tufts University2.23-8.35vs Predicted
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18University of Texas-1.34-0.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.54Stanford University2.790.1%1st Place
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7.87Boston College2.440.1%1st Place
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7.82Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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8.23University of Miami2.270.1%1st Place
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4.74Yale University3.290.2%1st Place
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10.92Jacksonville University1.610.0%1st Place
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6.93U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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7.02Dartmouth College2.590.1%1st Place
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12.01North Carolina State University1.310.0%1st Place
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8.25College of Charleston2.350.1%1st Place
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13.55University of Wisconsin0.860.0%1st Place
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7.59Georgetown University2.540.1%1st Place
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10.11University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.0%1st Place
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10.97University of South Florida1.510.0%1st Place
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9.72Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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12.83Old Dominion University1.080.0%1st Place
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8.65Tufts University2.230.1%1st Place
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17.25University of Texas-1.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reade Decker | 9.6% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Peter Busch | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bonauto | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Dennis | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Stephan Baker | 17.8% | 15.5% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Igoe | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 1.6% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 7.6% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Chase Decker | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Usher | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 14.2% | 13.3% | 1.9% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 6.6% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Mary Castellini | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 14.9% | 26.5% | 7.3% |
| Diego Escobar | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 0.7% |
| Zachariah Schemel | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 1.4% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 0.4% |
| Blake Goodwin | 2.1% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 11.5% | 16.2% | 18.5% | 3.7% |
| Kurt Stuebe | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Tenrreiro | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 5.7% | 82.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.