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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.79+5.63vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.29+2.88vs Predicted
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3Boston College2.44+4.90vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.45+3.53vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.23+3.42vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+1.01vs Predicted
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7University of Miami2.27+1.33vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston2.35-0.10vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College2.59-1.99vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida1.51+1.44vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University2.54-3.56vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University1.61-0.80vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.90-3.39vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University1.08-1.53vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara1.77-4.76vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin0.86-2.39vs Predicted
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17North Carolina State University1.31-4.86vs Predicted
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18University of Texas-1.34-0.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.63Stanford University2.790.1%1st Place
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4.88Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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7.9Boston College2.440.1%1st Place
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7.53Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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8.42Tufts University2.230.1%1st Place
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7.01U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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8.33University of Miami2.270.1%1st Place
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7.9College of Charleston2.350.1%1st Place
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7.01Dartmouth College2.590.1%1st Place
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11.44University of South Florida1.510.0%1st Place
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7.44Georgetown University2.540.1%1st Place
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11.2Jacksonville University1.610.0%1st Place
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9.61Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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12.47Old Dominion University1.080.0%1st Place
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10.24University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.0%1st Place
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13.61University of Wisconsin0.860.0%1st Place
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12.14North Carolina State University1.310.0%1st Place
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17.26University of Texas-1.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reade Decker | 9.4% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Stephan Baker | 13.8% | 13.1% | 14.1% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Busch | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Kurt Stuebe | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Dennis | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Chase Decker | 7.3% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Zachariah Schemel | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 12.6% | 9.7% | 0.9% |
| Diego Escobar | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Igoe | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 1.6% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 0.8% |
| Blake Goodwin | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 11.1% | 15.3% | 15.5% | 4.4% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 0.6% |
| Mary Castellini | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 11.3% | 13.2% | 27.3% | 6.1% |
| Benjamin Usher | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 12.4% | 13.2% | 14.7% | 2.5% |
| Lucas Tenrreiro | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 6.9% | 82.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.