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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College2.44+7.07vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.39+2.72vs Predicted
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3Yale University3.29+2.04vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.59+3.19vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.45+2.77vs Predicted
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6College of Charleston2.35+2.21vs Predicted
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7Jacksonville University1.61+4.16vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63-0.93vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.08+4.03vs Predicted
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10Tufts University2.23-1.05vs Predicted
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11University of Miami2.27-2.35vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.90-1.71vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University2.44-5.32vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara1.77-3.80vs Predicted
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15University of Wisconsin0.86-1.28vs Predicted
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16North Carolina State University1.31-3.64vs Predicted
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17University of South Florida1.51-5.37vs Predicted
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18University of Texas0.28-2.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.07Boston College2.440.1%1st Place
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4.72Stanford University3.390.1%1st Place
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5.04Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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7.19Dartmouth College2.590.1%1st Place
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7.77Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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8.21College of Charleston2.350.1%1st Place
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11.16Jacksonville University1.610.0%1st Place
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7.07U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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13.03Old Dominion University1.080.0%1st Place
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8.95Tufts University2.230.1%1st Place
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8.65University of Miami2.270.1%1st Place
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10.29Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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7.68Georgetown University2.440.1%1st Place
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10.2University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.0%1st Place
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13.72University of Wisconsin0.860.0%1st Place
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12.36North Carolina State University1.310.0%1st Place
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11.63University of South Florida1.510.0%1st Place
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15.26University of Texas0.280.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Busch | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 13.7% | 15.1% | 12.4% | 13.3% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Stephan Baker | 13.0% | 14.3% | 13.0% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chase Decker | 7.5% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Sam Bonauto | 6.7% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Patrick Igoe | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 4.5% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Blake Goodwin | 2.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 14.7% | 15.5% | 10.9% |
| Kurt Stuebe | 6.1% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Aidan Dennis | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 2.3% |
| Peter Barnard | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 2.7% |
| Mary Castellini | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 12.0% | 16.6% | 19.3% |
| Benjamin Usher | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 12.9% | 9.3% |
| Zachariah Schemel | 3.2% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 5.5% |
| Reese Zebrowski | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 10.2% | 14.6% | 42.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.