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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.29+4.09vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.44+6.11vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.39+1.66vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.23+4.59vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.77+5.44vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.45+1.83vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston2.35+1.23vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College2.59-0.79vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University2.44-1.25vs Predicted
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10University of Miami2.27-1.22vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63-3.66vs Predicted
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12North Carolina State University1.31+0.56vs Predicted
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13Jacksonville University1.61-1.99vs Predicted
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14Fordham University1.90-4.33vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida1.51-3.55vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin0.86-2.12vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University1.08-3.84vs Predicted
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18University of Texas0.28-2.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.09Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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8.11Boston College2.440.0%1st Place
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4.66Stanford University3.390.2%1st Place
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8.59Tufts University2.230.1%1st Place
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10.44University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.0%1st Place
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7.83Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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8.23College of Charleston2.350.1%1st Place
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7.21Dartmouth College2.590.1%1st Place
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7.75Georgetown University2.440.1%1st Place
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8.78University of Miami2.270.1%1st Place
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7.34U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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12.56North Carolina State University1.310.0%1st Place
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11.01Jacksonville University1.610.0%1st Place
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9.67Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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11.45University of South Florida1.510.0%1st Place
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13.88University of Wisconsin0.860.0%1st Place
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13.16Old Dominion University1.080.0%1st Place
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15.23University of Texas0.280.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 14.1% | 15.1% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Busch | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 16.2% | 14.2% | 12.7% | 12.6% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kurt Stuebe | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 2.6% |
| Sam Bonauto | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Chase Decker | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Peter Barnard | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Aidan Dennis | 6.3% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Benjamin Usher | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 13.2% | 10.1% |
| Patrick Igoe | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 3.3% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 1.8% |
| Zachariah Schemel | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 4.9% |
| Mary Castellini | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 17.9% | 19.5% |
| Blake Goodwin | 2.2% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 11.5% | 13.3% | 14.2% | 13.8% |
| Reese Zebrowski | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 10.2% | 17.5% | 40.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.