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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.29+4.07vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.44+5.99vs Predicted
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3University of Wisconsin0.86+10.74vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.39+0.56vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.44+2.71vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College2.59+1.18vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.45+0.74vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63-1.01vs Predicted
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9University of Miami2.27-0.62vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.90+0.06vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara1.77-0.54vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University1.61-0.67vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida1.51-1.78vs Predicted
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14North Carolina State University1.31-2.25vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University1.08-2.23vs Predicted
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16University of Texas-1.34+1.35vs Predicted
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17Tufts University2.23-8.23vs Predicted
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18College of Charleston2.35-10.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.07Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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7.99Boston College2.440.1%1st Place
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13.74University of Wisconsin0.860.0%1st Place
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4.56Stanford University3.390.2%1st Place
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7.71Georgetown University2.440.1%1st Place
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7.18Dartmouth College2.590.1%1st Place
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7.74Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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6.99U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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8.38University of Miami2.270.0%1st Place
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10.06Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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10.46University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.0%1st Place
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11.33Jacksonville University1.610.0%1st Place
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11.22University of South Florida1.510.0%1st Place
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11.75North Carolina State University1.310.0%1st Place
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12.77Old Dominion University1.080.0%1st Place
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17.35University of Texas-1.340.0%1st Place
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8.77Tufts University2.230.1%1st Place
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7.94College of Charleston2.350.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 13.7% | 14.3% | 11.6% | 11.9% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Busch | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Mary Castellini | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 17.2% | 26.7% | 5.7% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 17.3% | 16.0% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Barnard | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Chase Decker | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bonauto | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 7.5% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Dennis | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 0.8% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 0.6% |
| Patrick Igoe | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 1.0% |
| Zachariah Schemel | 3.3% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 1.2% |
| Benjamin Usher | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 11.5% | 13.1% | 12.8% | 1.7% |
| Blake Goodwin | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 15.1% | 18.0% | 3.8% |
| Lucas Tenrreiro | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 5.2% | 84.7% |
| Kurt Stuebe | 5.9% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.