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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.29+4.03vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.39+2.68vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.77+7.68vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.44+3.71vs Predicted
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5Boston College2.44+2.73vs Predicted
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6University of South Florida1.51+5.37vs Predicted
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7Tufts University2.23+1.54vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston2.35+0.01vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.45-1.35vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63-2.67vs Predicted
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11University of Miami2.27-2.45vs Predicted
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12North Carolina State University1.31+0.31vs Predicted
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13Jacksonville University1.61-2.22vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College2.59-6.99vs Predicted
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15Fordham University1.90-5.20vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin0.86-2.41vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University1.08-4.04vs Predicted
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18University of Texas-1.34-0.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.03Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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4.68Stanford University3.390.1%1st Place
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10.68University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.0%1st Place
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7.71Georgetown University2.440.1%1st Place
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7.73Boston College2.440.1%1st Place
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11.37University of South Florida1.510.0%1st Place
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8.54Tufts University2.230.1%1st Place
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8.01College of Charleston2.350.1%1st Place
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7.65Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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7.33U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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8.55University of Miami2.270.1%1st Place
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12.31North Carolina State University1.310.0%1st Place
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10.78Jacksonville University1.610.0%1st Place
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7.01Dartmouth College2.590.1%1st Place
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9.8Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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13.59University of Wisconsin0.860.0%1st Place
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12.96Old Dominion University1.080.0%1st Place
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17.26University of Texas-1.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 14.6% | 13.3% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 14.4% | 14.6% | 13.1% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 5.4% | 0.8% |
| Peter Barnard | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Peter Busch | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Zachariah Schemel | 3.1% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 12.4% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 2.1% |
| Kurt Stuebe | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bonauto | 5.9% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 8.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Dennis | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Benjamin Usher | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 11.6% | 14.3% | 14.2% | 3.4% |
| Patrick Igoe | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 6.2% | 1.2% |
| Chase Decker | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.1% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 0.3% |
| Mary Castellini | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 14.4% | 25.8% | 5.4% |
| Blake Goodwin | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 16.5% | 19.7% | 4.1% |
| Lucas Tenrreiro | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 7.0% | 81.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.