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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.44+6.80vs Predicted
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2University of Miami2.27+6.49vs Predicted
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3Boston College2.44+4.80vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.08+8.47vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston2.35+3.02vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University1.65+4.70vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.45+0.61vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.01+1.26vs Predicted
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9University of Wisconsin0.86+4.39vs Predicted
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10Tufts University2.23-1.25vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida1.51+0.33vs Predicted
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12Yale University2.75-5.13vs Predicted
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13Stanford University3.39-8.58vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College2.72-7.59vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara1.77-4.82vs Predicted
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16North Carolina State University0.98-2.92vs Predicted
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17U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63-9.84vs Predicted
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18University of Texas-1.34-0.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.8Georgetown University2.440.1%1st Place
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8.49University of Miami2.270.0%1st Place
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7.8Boston College2.440.1%1st Place
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12.47Old Dominion University1.080.0%1st Place
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8.02College of Charleston2.350.1%1st Place
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10.7Jacksonville University1.650.0%1st Place
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7.61Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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9.26Fordham University2.010.0%1st Place
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13.39University of Wisconsin0.860.0%1st Place
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8.75Tufts University2.230.1%1st Place
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11.33University of South Florida1.510.0%1st Place
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6.87Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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4.42Stanford University3.390.2%1st Place
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6.41Dartmouth College2.720.1%1st Place
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10.18University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.0%1st Place
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13.08North Carolina State University0.980.0%1st Place
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7.16U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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17.25University of Texas-1.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Barnard | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Dennis | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Peter Busch | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Blake Goodwin | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 16.9% | 16.3% | 3.6% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Emily Allen | 3.4% | 2.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 0.9% |
| Sam Bonauto | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Lucas Thress | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 0.2% |
| Mary Castellini | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 15.3% | 24.1% | 5.0% |
| Kurt Stuebe | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Zachariah Schemel | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 12.1% | 8.2% | 2.1% |
| Carmen Cowles | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 17.8% | 16.4% | 13.6% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 10.5% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 3.8% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 0.7% |
| Ryan Brelage | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 8.9% | 12.2% | 13.1% | 22.3% | 4.0% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Lucas Tenrreiro | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 6.2% | 82.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.