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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.75+5.71vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston2.35+6.23vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.39+1.58vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.44+3.64vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.44+2.63vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.08+6.75vs Predicted
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7University of Miami2.27+1.34vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.01+1.26vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.45-1.52vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College2.72-3.14vs Predicted
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11Jacksonville University1.65-0.18vs Predicted
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12North Carolina State University0.98+1.31vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63-6.18vs Predicted
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14Tufts University2.23-5.78vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida1.51-3.80vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Barbara1.77-5.65vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin0.86-3.42vs Predicted
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18University of Texas-1.34-0.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.71Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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8.23College of Charleston2.350.0%1st Place
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4.58Stanford University3.390.2%1st Place
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7.64Boston College2.440.1%1st Place
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7.63Georgetown University2.440.1%1st Place
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12.75Old Dominion University1.080.0%1st Place
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8.34University of Miami2.270.1%1st Place
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9.26Fordham University2.010.0%1st Place
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7.48Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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6.86Dartmouth College2.720.1%1st Place
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10.82Jacksonville University1.650.0%1st Place
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13.31North Carolina State University0.980.0%1st Place
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6.82U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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8.22Tufts University2.230.1%1st Place
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11.2University of South Florida1.510.0%1st Place
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10.35University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.0%1st Place
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13.58University of Wisconsin0.860.0%1st Place
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17.22University of Texas-1.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Cowles | 9.0% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 15.6% | 15.4% | 13.9% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Busch | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Peter Barnard | 6.9% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Blake Goodwin | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 16.0% | 16.6% | 4.0% |
| Aidan Dennis | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Lucas Thress | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Emily Allen | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 1.3% |
| Ryan Brelage | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 16.7% | 20.9% | 5.8% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 9.5% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Kurt Stuebe | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Zachariah Schemel | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 8.4% | 1.3% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 0.9% |
| Mary Castellini | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 11.8% | 16.8% | 24.1% | 5.5% |
| Lucas Tenrreiro | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 7.9% | 80.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.