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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.54+8.44vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.39+3.97vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.59+6.19vs Predicted
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4Yale University3.29+2.14vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston2.35+4.91vs Predicted
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6Tulane University2.94+1.47vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.25+3.43vs Predicted
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8Brown University3.05-1.01vs Predicted
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9Harvard University3.03-1.93vs Predicted
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10University of Miami2.27+0.65vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland2.32-0.70vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.23-1.12vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University2.44-3.52vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.73-1.79vs Predicted
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15George Washington University1.39-1.23vs Predicted
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16Bowdoin College2.45-6.41vs Predicted
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17Tufts University2.23-6.31vs Predicted
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18University of Rhode Island2.10-7.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.44U. S. Naval Academy2.540.1%1st Place
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5.97Stanford University3.390.1%1st Place
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9.19Dartmouth College2.590.1%1st Place
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6.14Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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9.91College of Charleston2.350.0%1st Place
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7.47Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
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10.43Boston College2.250.0%1st Place
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6.99Brown University3.050.1%1st Place
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7.07Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
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10.65University of Miami2.270.0%1st Place
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10.3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.320.0%1st Place
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10.88Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.230.0%1st Place
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9.48Georgetown University2.440.1%1st Place
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12.21Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.730.0%1st Place
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13.77George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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9.59Bowdoin College2.450.0%1st Place
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10.69Tufts University2.230.0%1st Place
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10.83University of Rhode Island2.100.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Allgeier | 5.1% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 3.3% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 10.3% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Chase Decker | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.3% |
| Stephan Baker | 11.7% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 4.0% |
| Hamilton Barclay | 7.6% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| Jack Redmond | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 5.2% |
| Blake Behrens | 8.3% | 11.5% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 8.1% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| Aidan Dennis | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% |
| Landon Cormie | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% |
| JJ Klempen | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 6.9% |
| Peter Barnard | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 3.4% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 12.8% | 15.4% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 14.5% | 27.9% |
| Sam Bonauto | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.3% |
| Kurt Stuebe | 4.1% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 5.9% |
| Tyler Nash | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.