Race 5A

bears-invite

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

37.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Connor McHugh 8.1% 8.7% 9.6% 8.6% 9.1% 9.3% 8.4% 8.2% 7.7% 6.5% 6.7% 4.2% 3.0% 1.2% 0.7% 0.0%
Julian Dahiya 5.0% 8.5% 6.9% 6.4% 6.4% 9.5% 6.7% 8.3% 7.7% 8.0% 8.6% 7.5% 5.0% 3.3% 2.1% 0.1%
Noah Stapleton 20.5% 16.7% 14.7% 13.2% 10.8% 8.0% 6.7% 3.9% 2.1% 1.9% 0.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Peter Judge 1.3% 2.6% 2.8% 2.9% 3.4% 3.6% 3.4% 5.3% 5.1% 6.8% 7.4% 9.6% 10.7% 15.1% 15.9% 4.1%
Jack Roman 9.0% 8.8% 11.2% 9.9% 10.1% 10.4% 7.8% 8.0% 7.7% 5.9% 5.3% 2.5% 2.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Parker Moore 13.7% 13.6% 12.8% 11.4% 9.8% 8.3% 9.3% 5.9% 5.2% 3.9% 2.9% 1.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Gabby Collins 5.2% 4.2% 4.5% 5.2% 5.0% 5.0% 6.9% 7.2% 9.2% 7.4% 9.1% 9.0% 10.3% 7.3% 4.2% 0.3%
Joey Richardson 3.7% 4.1% 4.5% 5.2% 5.6% 6.4% 6.6% 7.0% 7.2% 8.3% 10.1% 9.3% 10.3% 6.4% 4.6% 0.7%
Jacob Lentz 1.2% 1.5% 1.8% 1.8% 1.6% 1.2% 2.7% 3.0% 4.5% 4.4% 5.8% 7.0% 11.3% 16.3% 26.8% 9.1%
Bo Angus 10.5% 10.8% 7.8% 11.7% 9.5% 10.4% 9.1% 8.5% 7.5% 4.9% 3.7% 3.1% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
reece schwartz 9.7% 8.5% 9.1% 7.5% 9.1% 9.0% 8.2% 9.5% 7.1% 8.8% 4.7% 4.0% 2.0% 2.4% 0.4% 0.0%
David Vinogradov 4.3% 4.5% 3.4% 5.4% 7.5% 5.9% 6.8% 7.0% 7.7% 8.6% 8.8% 9.5% 9.0% 6.5% 4.6% 0.5%
William Baker 2.6% 2.9% 5.3% 5.1% 5.0% 5.6% 6.4% 5.8% 9.5% 9.0% 9.2% 9.0% 9.7% 8.9% 5.4% 0.6%
Pierson Falk 3.2% 2.5% 3.8% 3.3% 4.1% 4.8% 7.0% 7.4% 5.6% 9.3% 9.0% 11.3% 9.5% 10.5% 7.0% 1.7%
Finneas Coldreck 2.0% 2.0% 1.5% 2.1% 2.3% 2.5% 3.6% 4.7% 5.5% 5.5% 7.9% 9.5% 11.1% 16.2% 18.6% 5.0%
Leo Giard 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.7% 0.8% 0.5% 1.8% 3.1% 3.8% 9.2% 77.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.