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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.38+5.91vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.82+3.28vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College1.49+7.35vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island1.38+6.36vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.55+1.06vs Predicted
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6Yale University2.13+1.58vs Predicted
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7Harvard University2.21+0.32vs Predicted
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8Tufts University1.69+1.22vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University0.89+3.35vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.60-0.06vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College1.32-0.07vs Predicted
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12Brown University2.76-6.30vs Predicted
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13Boston University0.74-0.33vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College1.23-3.20vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.90-6.56vs Predicted
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16Yale University2.36-9.23vs Predicted
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17Salve Regina University-0.20-1.39vs Predicted
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18University of Vermont0.08-3.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.91Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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5.28Boston College2.820.1%1st Place
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10.35Bowdoin College1.490.0%1st Place
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10.36University of Rhode Island1.380.0%1st Place
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6.06Brown University2.550.1%1st Place
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7.58Yale University2.130.1%1st Place
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7.32Harvard University2.210.1%1st Place
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9.22Tufts University1.690.0%1st Place
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12.35Northeastern University0.890.0%1st Place
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9.94U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.600.0%1st Place
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10.93Dartmouth College1.320.0%1st Place
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5.7Brown University2.760.1%1st Place
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12.67Boston University0.740.0%1st Place
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10.8Connecticut College1.230.0%1st Place
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8.44Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.900.1%1st Place
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6.77Yale University2.360.1%1st Place
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15.61Salve Regina University-0.200.0%1st Place
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14.72University of Vermont0.080.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Stokke | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 12.0% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 12.3% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyra Phelan | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 1.8% |
| Christopher Chwalk | 2.8% | 2.7% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 2.7% |
| Martins Atilla | 11.5% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Carly Kieding | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Jacob Posner | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Gus Macaulay | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 0.8% |
| Charles Wilkinson | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 13.4% | 11.5% | 6.2% |
| Benjamin Reeser | 4.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 1.4% |
| Turner Ryon | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 3.0% |
| Noah Stapleton | 12.3% | 10.5% | 12.5% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter Stewart | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 9.7% |
| William Hurd | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 3.2% |
| William Kulas | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 9.3% | 4.7% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Elle Sykes | 7.8% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Sean Morrison | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 18.8% | 44.1% |
| Ryan Begin | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 8.7% | 12.5% | 22.4% | 26.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.