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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.60+8.85vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.82+3.29vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.76+2.50vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island1.38+6.36vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.36+1.75vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University0.89+6.42vs Predicted
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7Brown University2.55-0.96vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.38-1.39vs Predicted
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9Harvard University2.21-1.76vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.69-0.48vs Predicted
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11Yale University2.13-3.28vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College1.49-1.58vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College1.32-2.37vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College1.23-3.19vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont0.08-0.19vs Predicted
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16Boston University0.74-3.06vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.90-8.30vs Predicted
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18Salve Regina University-0.20-2.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.85U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.600.0%1st Place
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5.29Boston College2.820.1%1st Place
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5.5Brown University2.760.1%1st Place
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10.36University of Rhode Island1.380.0%1st Place
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6.75Yale University2.360.1%1st Place
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12.42Northeastern University0.890.0%1st Place
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6.04Brown University2.550.1%1st Place
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6.61Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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7.24Harvard University2.210.1%1st Place
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9.52Tufts University1.690.0%1st Place
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7.72Yale University2.130.1%1st Place
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10.42Bowdoin College1.490.0%1st Place
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10.63Dartmouth College1.320.0%1st Place
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10.81Connecticut College1.230.0%1st Place
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14.81University of Vermont0.080.0%1st Place
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12.94Boston University0.740.0%1st Place
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8.7Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.900.1%1st Place
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15.37Salve Regina University-0.200.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Reeser | 4.1% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 1.7% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 11.1% | 12.8% | 11.9% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Stapleton | 12.9% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Chwalk | 3.2% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 2.7% |
| Elle Sykes | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Charles Wilkinson | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 13.0% | 11.3% | 8.8% |
| Martins Atilla | 10.2% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Stokke | 8.9% | 10.9% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Posner | 6.9% | 6.6% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Gus Macaulay | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| Carly Kieding | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Kyra Phelan | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 1.8% |
| Turner Ryon | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 2.0% |
| William Hurd | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 3.3% |
| Ryan Begin | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 12.5% | 21.7% | 27.5% |
| Peter Stewart | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 13.1% | 14.8% | 9.8% |
| William Kulas | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Sean Morrison | 1.1% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 19.2% | 40.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.