Race 4A

mt-hope-bay-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Jakub Fuja 12.8% 13.6% 12.0% 12.7% 10.7% 12.0% 11.3% 7.0% 3.4% 2.2% 1.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dominik Moncur 11.1% 15.6% 12.1% 11.6% 12.0% 11.4% 9.6% 8.3% 4.3% 3.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Edward Herman 22.0% 17.7% 16.3% 15.1% 9.7% 9.2% 5.8% 2.4% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ludwik Grzelak 10.9% 11.7% 12.2% 12.1% 12.1% 10.6% 10.4% 9.7% 5.9% 2.6% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
James Meyer 1.3% 1.7% 2.3% 2.7% 2.9% 2.8% 5.0% 6.9% 9.0% 13.0% 15.4% 17.5% 10.6% 5.8% 3.1%
Victoria Sikorjak 0.6% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 1.1% 0.7% 2.0% 2.1% 2.9% 4.9% 8.1% 9.9% 14.1% 20.0% 32.0%
Madeline Murphy 9.1% 8.1% 9.2% 10.0% 11.7% 13.5% 11.9% 11.1% 7.9% 4.2% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Sophia Fuller 5.0% 4.3% 6.1% 6.9% 8.6% 7.5% 10.9% 12.6% 12.8% 13.2% 7.9% 3.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Richard Pokorny 16.6% 16.7% 16.4% 13.4% 12.8% 9.6% 6.9% 4.8% 1.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colin Shearley 0.6% 0.5% 1.0% 0.9% 1.4% 1.6% 1.6% 3.1% 5.0% 8.1% 12.6% 15.9% 16.4% 17.7% 13.6%
Charlotte Green 0.7% 1.2% 0.4% 1.0% 1.1% 1.6% 2.2% 2.9% 6.2% 8.8% 11.7% 14.4% 15.6% 18.4% 13.8%
Riley McKnight 0.7% 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% 1.3% 1.5% 1.8% 4.0% 7.2% 9.2% 14.4% 17.9% 19.0% 20.8%
Olivia Blackmer 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.8% 1.4% 1.4% 2.5% 2.7% 5.4% 7.0% 11.6% 12.7% 19.3% 17.5% 16.5%
Hayden McCready 3.5% 2.6% 4.3% 4.5% 5.9% 7.8% 9.6% 10.6% 15.0% 15.0% 10.6% 6.2% 3.3% 0.9% 0.2%
John Fichtenholtz 4.6% 5.5% 5.9% 7.2% 7.8% 9.0% 8.8% 14.0% 14.9% 9.8% 6.8% 3.7% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.