Race 5A

mt-hope-bay-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Jakub Fuja 12.7% 12.8% 12.7% 13.1% 11.5% 10.8% 11.1% 6.7% 4.5% 1.8% 1.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Ludwik Grzelak 9.5% 13.8% 14.0% 10.0% 13.1% 11.1% 10.4% 8.2% 5.9% 2.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Edward Herman 22.0% 18.3% 16.2% 15.2% 10.0% 8.7% 4.8% 2.9% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richard Pokorny 18.9% 17.1% 13.6% 12.1% 12.2% 11.1% 7.6% 3.9% 2.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
John Fichtenholtz 4.4% 6.4% 6.5% 6.2% 6.3% 9.0% 10.2% 13.8% 14.2% 11.0% 6.3% 4.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Dominik Moncur 11.2% 11.5% 12.7% 13.8% 13.0% 12.3% 9.4% 6.7% 5.9% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Hayden McCready 4.4% 3.0% 3.6% 4.8% 5.2% 7.3% 8.5% 11.5% 15.4% 14.0% 10.0% 7.2% 3.3% 1.6% 0.2%
Sophia Fuller 5.1% 5.3% 5.8% 6.6% 8.1% 9.0% 10.7% 12.9% 13.3% 10.7% 7.9% 3.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1%
James Meyer 0.8% 1.5% 1.6% 1.8% 2.9% 3.3% 5.9% 7.4% 9.7% 15.7% 17.4% 12.7% 12.0% 4.9% 2.4%
Madeline Murphy 8.0% 8.1% 9.5% 11.5% 12.8% 10.4% 11.4% 11.2% 8.2% 4.6% 3.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Riley McKnight 0.6% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 0.6% 1.0% 1.8% 3.1% 3.2% 9.2% 10.1% 13.6% 14.5% 19.3% 20.3%
Victoria Sikorjak 0.7% 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.8% 1.2% 1.8% 3.0% 3.0% 7.8% 10.1% 15.1% 22.4% 32.7%
Charlotte Green 0.5% 0.0% 0.8% 1.3% 1.2% 2.0% 2.8% 2.9% 4.1% 6.8% 11.3% 16.7% 17.7% 17.2% 14.7%
Olivia Blackmer 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% 0.9% 1.3% 1.5% 2.3% 3.1% 4.1% 10.0% 11.1% 14.2% 17.5% 16.9% 15.4%
Colin Shearley 0.5% 0.8% 0.9% 1.3% 1.6% 1.7% 1.9% 3.9% 4.6% 7.2% 11.7% 15.6% 17.3% 16.8% 14.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.