Race 10A

mt-hope-bay-invite

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Madeline Murphy 9.4% 9.3% 10.5% 11.0% 10.2% 10.8% 12.8% 10.2% 7.1% 5.2% 2.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Edward Herman 21.8% 20.9% 15.1% 12.4% 10.7% 9.2% 5.0% 2.8% 1.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
John Fichtenholtz 5.5% 4.7% 7.1% 7.3% 7.4% 8.2% 11.1% 14.0% 13.7% 10.1% 6.6% 3.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0%
Ludwik Grzelak 11.4% 11.0% 13.6% 9.2% 12.8% 11.0% 11.6% 9.5% 5.2% 2.7% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hayden McCready 2.4% 4.4% 4.5% 5.1% 4.9% 6.7% 8.3% 10.7% 14.0% 16.3% 10.4% 7.3% 4.1% 0.7% 0.2%
Jakub Fuja 11.8% 11.4% 12.9% 14.9% 11.7% 13.0% 9.9% 6.8% 4.3% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dominik Moncur 12.4% 12.1% 12.3% 12.0% 14.3% 11.7% 9.2% 7.0% 5.1% 2.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Meyer 1.3% 1.4% 2.3% 2.1% 3.2% 3.9% 4.7% 6.8% 9.9% 13.7% 14.3% 15.0% 12.6% 6.6% 2.2%
Olivia Blackmer 0.2% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 0.7% 1.2% 2.1% 3.4% 4.9% 8.5% 12.2% 14.1% 17.8% 18.8% 13.4%
Charlotte Green 0.7% 0.3% 1.2% 1.4% 1.2% 1.4% 1.5% 3.5% 5.9% 6.6% 12.7% 14.9% 17.0% 16.1% 15.6%
Richard Pokorny 17.4% 17.9% 13.7% 12.7% 10.7% 10.1% 8.0% 4.5% 3.0% 1.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sophia Fuller 4.4% 4.0% 4.9% 8.2% 8.2% 8.4% 10.1% 13.6% 13.0% 11.9% 8.9% 3.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2%
Riley McKnight 0.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.7% 1.3% 1.4% 2.1% 2.6% 4.9% 5.1% 10.2% 13.0% 16.2% 20.0% 21.2%
Victoria Sikorjak 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 0.9% 1.5% 3.6% 5.1% 8.3% 12.4% 13.4% 18.9% 32.3%
Colin Shearley 0.8% 0.5% 0.6% 1.2% 1.8% 2.0% 2.7% 3.1% 4.2% 7.7% 10.8% 14.1% 17.3% 18.3% 14.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.