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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34+2.86vs Predicted
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2George Washington University1.90+2.85vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy1.70+2.47vs Predicted
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4Christopher Newport University1.08+3.33vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.75-1.90vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University0.81+2.29vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University0.85+1.03vs Predicted
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8Penn State University0.96-0.23vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.24-2.14vs Predicted
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10Virginia Tech0.07+0.43vs Predicted
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11Virginia Tech0.07-0.57vs Predicted
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12Hampton University0.61-3.18vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland0.94-4.95vs Predicted
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14William and Mary-0.40-2.34vs Predicted
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15American University-1.50-1.35vs Predicted
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16University of Maryland-0.53-4.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.86St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.2%1st Place
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4.85George Washington University1.900.1%1st Place
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5.47U. S. Naval Academy1.700.1%1st Place
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7.33Christopher Newport University1.080.0%1st Place
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3.1U. S. Naval Academy2.750.3%1st Place
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8.29Old Dominion University0.810.0%1st Place
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8.03Christopher Newport University0.850.0%1st Place
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7.77Penn State University0.960.0%1st Place
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6.86Old Dominion University1.240.1%1st Place
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10.43Virginia Tech0.070.0%1st Place
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10.43Virginia Tech0.070.0%1st Place
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8.82Hampton University0.610.0%1st Place
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8.05St. Mary's College of Maryland0.940.0%1st Place
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11.66William and Mary-0.400.0%1st Place
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13.65American University-1.500.0%1st Place
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11.84University of Maryland-0.530.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Cook | 20.0% | 18.3% | 14.6% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 8.6% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 12.3% | 13.5% | 12.8% | 11.2% | 12.3% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leo Robillard | 9.1% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Bendura | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Reinecke | 26.0% | 22.9% | 16.1% | 13.8% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gianna Dewey | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Aston Atherton | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Barrett Lhamon | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 11.2% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Diogo Silva | 5.5% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 1.3% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 13.4% | 17.5% | 12.4% | 6.1% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 1.3% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 13.4% | 17.5% | 12.4% | 6.1% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Brown | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Opert | 3.7% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 11.2% | 18.8% | 22.6% | 14.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Curtis | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 5.1% | 8.3% | 15.8% | 58.2% | 0.0% |
| Sophie Grigg | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 14.0% | 26.4% | 16.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.