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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.72+4.08vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.20+2.03vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.38+0.42vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.04+0.50vs Predicted
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5George Washington University0.93+2.28vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University0.95+1.70vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.13+0.87vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67-0.17vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97-3.06vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College-1.22+2.39vs Predicted
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11Washington College0.20-1.12vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University0.65-3.22vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-4.05vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.32-2.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.08University of Pennsylvania1.7210.1%1st Place
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4.03Georgetown University2.2018.3%1st Place
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3.42Cornell University2.3822.7%1st Place
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4.5U. S. Naval Academy2.0415.8%1st Place
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7.28George Washington University0.933.9%1st Place
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7.7Old Dominion University0.954.4%1st Place
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7.87Fordham University1.133.9%1st Place
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7.83St. Mary's College of Maryland0.674.5%1st Place
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5.94Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.977.6%1st Place
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12.39SUNY Maritime College-1.220.6%1st Place
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9.88Washington College0.201.6%1st Place
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8.78Christopher Newport University0.653.5%1st Place
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8.95U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.292.3%1st Place
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11.35Princeton University-0.320.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Chisari | 10.1% | 12.6% | 11.2% | 13.2% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Piper Holthus | 18.3% | 15.4% | 14.6% | 13.2% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 22.7% | 19.4% | 17.2% | 12.8% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 15.8% | 12.8% | 12.4% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Avery Canavan | 3.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 0.6% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 4.2% | 1.2% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 2.0% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 4.9% | 1.7% |
| Heather Kerns | 7.6% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Eva Leggett | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 18.8% | 51.1% |
| Kennedy Jones | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 12.3% | 15.5% | 17.6% | 8.7% |
| Grace Watlington | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 12.4% | 10.2% | 3.3% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 13.0% | 10.0% | 4.5% |
| Carly Mraz | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 13.7% | 23.9% | 26.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.