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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34+2.90vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy1.70+3.48vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.75+0.02vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.24+2.92vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University0.85+3.21vs Predicted
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6Penn State University0.96+1.86vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University1.08+0.38vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland0.94-0.09vs Predicted
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9Virginia Tech0.07+1.46vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University0.81-1.68vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.90-5.86vs Predicted
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12Hampton University0.61-2.83vs Predicted
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13American University-0.66-0.52vs Predicted
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14William and Mary-0.40-2.29vs Predicted
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15University of Maryland-0.53-2.99vs Predicted
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16Virginia Tech0.07-5.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.2%1st Place
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5.48U. S. Naval Academy1.700.1%1st Place
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3.02U. S. Naval Academy2.750.3%1st Place
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6.92Old Dominion University1.240.1%1st Place
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8.21Christopher Newport University0.850.0%1st Place
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7.86Penn State University0.960.0%1st Place
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7.38Christopher Newport University1.080.1%1st Place
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7.91St. Mary's College of Maryland0.940.0%1st Place
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10.46Virginia Tech0.070.0%1st Place
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8.32Old Dominion University0.810.0%1st Place
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5.14George Washington University1.900.1%1st Place
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9.17Hampton University0.610.0%1st Place
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12.48American University-0.660.0%1st Place
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11.71William and Mary-0.400.0%1st Place
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12.01University of Maryland-0.530.0%1st Place
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10.46Virginia Tech0.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Cook | 18.8% | 17.0% | 15.8% | 13.4% | 10.7% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leo Robillard | 8.6% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Reinecke | 28.3% | 19.6% | 17.5% | 14.1% | 9.2% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Diogo Silva | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Aston Atherton | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Barrett Lhamon | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Bendura | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Scott Opert | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 14.4% | 14.2% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| Gianna Dewey | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 10.6% | 13.7% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Brown | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| Miles White | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 9.9% | 12.3% | 18.9% | 34.4% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 12.1% | 20.6% | 21.8% | 0.0% |
| Sophie Grigg | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 13.9% | 18.3% | 27.3% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 14.4% | 14.2% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.