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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.20+1.70vs Predicted
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2Christopher Newport University0.79+3.65vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University1.63+0.71vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland0.06+3.98vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.39-0.58vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.10+1.97vs Predicted
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7Penn State University0.54-0.74vs Predicted
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9Virginia Tech-0.81+1.32vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University-0.54-0.31vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy0.27-3.66vs Predicted
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12University of Maryland-0.66-1.93vs Predicted
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13Virginia Tech-0.81-2.68vs Predicted
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14William and Mary-0.82-3.56vs Predicted
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15American University-0.85-4.62vs Predicted
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16Hampton University-0.04-7.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.7U. S. Naval Academy2.200.3%1st Place
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5.65Christopher Newport University0.790.1%1st Place
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3.71Old Dominion University1.630.2%1st Place
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7.98St. Mary's College of Maryland0.060.0%1st Place
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4.42George Washington University1.390.1%1st Place
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7.97St. Mary's College of Maryland0.100.0%1st Place
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6.26Penn State University0.540.1%1st Place
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10.32Virginia Tech-0.810.0%1st Place
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9.69Christopher Newport University-0.540.0%1st Place
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7.34U. S. Naval Academy0.270.0%1st Place
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10.07University of Maryland-0.660.0%1st Place
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10.32Virginia Tech-0.810.0%1st Place
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10.44William and Mary-0.820.0%1st Place
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10.38American University-0.850.0%1st Place
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8.06Hampton University-0.040.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen MacWilliams | 32.8% | 24.0% | 16.5% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 7.3% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 12.7% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Marina Conde | 18.3% | 18.7% | 16.0% | 14.0% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lillian Rippel | 2.8% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 11.0% | 13.8% | 17.5% | 13.5% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cash Espinoza | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Murphy | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Ray McDonald | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 12.5% | 16.2% | 21.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Hubbard | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 0.0% |
| Liam Christopher | 4.3% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Eli Leopold | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 13.9% | 14.3% | 15.3% | 0.0% |
| Ray McDonald | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 12.5% | 16.2% | 21.0% | 0.0% |
| Finian Knight | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 16.2% | 19.9% | 0.0% |
| Brooke Lorson | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 16.4% | 20.2% | 0.0% |
| Ivet Bejar | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.