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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Christopher Newport University0.79+4.69vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University1.63+1.64vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.20-0.37vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.39-0.73vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.10+1.83vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy0.27+0.32vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland0.06-0.45vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University-0.54+0.41vs Predicted
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10Virginia Tech-0.81+0.24vs Predicted
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11Hampton University-0.04-2.80vs Predicted
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12Penn State University0.54-5.48vs Predicted
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13William and Mary-0.82-2.75vs Predicted
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14University of Maryland-0.66-4.26vs Predicted
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15Virginia Tech-0.81-4.76vs Predicted
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16American University-1.49-4.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.69Christopher Newport University0.790.1%1st Place
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3.64Old Dominion University1.630.2%1st Place
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2.63U. S. Naval Academy2.200.3%1st Place
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4.27George Washington University1.390.1%1st Place
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7.83St. Mary's College of Maryland0.100.0%1st Place
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7.32U. S. Naval Academy0.270.0%1st Place
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7.55St. Mary's College of Maryland0.060.0%1st Place
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9.41Christopher Newport University-0.540.0%1st Place
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10.24Virginia Tech-0.810.0%1st Place
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8.2Hampton University-0.040.0%1st Place
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6.52Penn State University0.540.1%1st Place
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10.25William and Mary-0.820.0%1st Place
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9.74University of Maryland-0.660.0%1st Place
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10.24Virginia Tech-0.810.0%1st Place
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11.71American University-1.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grace Watlington | 7.4% | 8.6% | 11.7% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Marina Conde | 18.6% | 19.3% | 16.2% | 13.9% | 12.2% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen MacWilliams | 33.1% | 23.9% | 17.3% | 11.0% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 13.5% | 15.0% | 16.1% | 12.9% | 13.3% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cash Espinoza | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Liam Christopher | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Lillian Rippel | 3.4% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Noah Hubbard | 2.0% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 13.1% | 10.3% | 0.0% |
| Ray McDonald | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 12.3% | 16.1% | 14.7% | 14.8% | 0.0% |
| Ivet Bejar | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Murphy | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Finian Knight | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 12.9% | 13.1% | 14.8% | 15.7% | 0.0% |
| Eli Leopold | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 14.0% | 14.4% | 10.5% | 0.0% |
| Ray McDonald | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 12.3% | 16.1% | 14.7% | 14.8% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Arey | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 18.2% | 40.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.