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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.20+1.69vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University1.63+1.62vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.39+1.18vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland0.10+3.74vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy0.27+2.30vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University0.79-1.14vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland0.06-0.48vs Predicted
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9Penn State University0.54-2.62vs Predicted
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10Hampton University-0.04-1.85vs Predicted
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11Virginia Tech-0.81-0.66vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech-0.81-1.66vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University-0.54-3.47vs Predicted
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14William and Mary-0.82-3.73vs Predicted
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15University of Maryland-0.66-5.30vs Predicted
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16American University-1.49-4.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.69U. S. Naval Academy2.200.3%1st Place
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3.62Old Dominion University1.630.2%1st Place
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4.18George Washington University1.390.1%1st Place
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7.74St. Mary's College of Maryland0.100.0%1st Place
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7.3U. S. Naval Academy0.270.0%1st Place
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5.86Christopher Newport University0.790.1%1st Place
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7.52St. Mary's College of Maryland0.060.0%1st Place
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6.38Penn State University0.540.1%1st Place
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8.15Hampton University-0.040.0%1st Place
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10.34Virginia Tech-0.810.0%1st Place
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10.34Virginia Tech-0.810.0%1st Place
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9.53Christopher Newport University-0.540.0%1st Place
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10.27William and Mary-0.820.0%1st Place
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9.7University of Maryland-0.660.0%1st Place
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11.72American University-1.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen MacWilliams | 32.8% | 24.4% | 14.2% | 12.6% | 8.5% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marina Conde | 18.3% | 19.6% | 17.9% | 13.1% | 12.3% | 7.7% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 13.6% | 16.1% | 15.9% | 14.2% | 10.7% | 12.1% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cash Espinoza | 2.7% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 12.4% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Liam Christopher | 3.9% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 7.2% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lillian Rippel | 4.5% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Murphy | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ivet Bejar | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 13.1% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| Ray McDonald | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 13.7% | 16.0% | 16.6% | 0.0% |
| Ray McDonald | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 13.7% | 16.0% | 16.6% | 0.0% |
| Noah Hubbard | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 14.0% | 12.7% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| Finian Knight | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 12.6% | 14.7% | 16.9% | 0.0% |
| Eli Leopold | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 14.1% | 14.6% | 10.3% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Arey | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 9.6% | 19.9% | 38.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.