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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy0.27+6.19vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.20+0.62vs Predicted
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4Penn State University0.54+2.41vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University0.79+0.86vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.06+2.03vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.63-3.13vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University-0.54+1.37vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland0.10-1.24vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.39-5.60vs Predicted
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11Virginia Tech-0.81-0.56vs Predicted
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12Hampton University-0.04-3.66vs Predicted
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13Virginia Tech-0.81-2.56vs Predicted
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14American University-0.85-3.47vs Predicted
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15University of Maryland-0.66-5.12vs Predicted
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16William and Mary-0.82-5.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.19U. S. Naval Academy0.270.0%1st Place
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2.62U. S. Naval Academy2.200.3%1st Place
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6.41Penn State University0.540.1%1st Place
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5.86Christopher Newport University0.790.1%1st Place
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8.03St. Mary's College of Maryland0.060.0%1st Place
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3.87Old Dominion University1.630.2%1st Place
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9.37Christopher Newport University-0.540.0%1st Place
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7.76St. Mary's College of Maryland0.100.0%1st Place
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4.4George Washington University1.390.1%1st Place
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10.44Virginia Tech-0.810.0%1st Place
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8.34Hampton University-0.040.0%1st Place
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10.44Virginia Tech-0.810.0%1st Place
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10.53American University-0.850.0%1st Place
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9.88University of Maryland-0.660.0%1st Place
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10.32William and Mary-0.820.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Christopher | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Owen MacWilliams | 32.6% | 25.3% | 15.9% | 12.3% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Murphy | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 7.3% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 12.7% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Lillian Rippel | 3.2% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| Marina Conde | 16.0% | 19.1% | 16.1% | 14.6% | 11.2% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Hubbard | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 12.8% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| Cash Espinoza | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 12.9% | 13.6% | 15.8% | 13.7% | 13.2% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ray McDonald | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 15.3% | 20.7% | 0.0% |
| Ivet Bejar | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| Ray McDonald | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 15.3% | 20.7% | 0.0% |
| Brooke Lorson | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 12.9% | 13.6% | 22.2% | 0.0% |
| Eli Leopold | 2.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 13.3% | 13.7% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Finian Knight | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 12.9% | 18.6% | 17.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.