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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Penn State University0.54+5.43vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland0.10+5.60vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy0.27+4.24vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.63-0.20vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University0.79+0.89vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.39-1.59vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.20-4.37vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University-0.54+1.54vs Predicted
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9William and Mary-0.82+1.50vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland0.06-2.01vs Predicted
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12University of Maryland-0.66-1.92vs Predicted
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13Hampton University-0.04-4.80vs Predicted
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14Virginia Tech-0.81-3.64vs Predicted
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15Virginia Tech-0.81-4.64vs Predicted
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16American University-0.85-5.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.43Penn State University0.540.1%1st Place
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7.6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.100.0%1st Place
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7.24U. S. Naval Academy0.270.1%1st Place
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3.8Old Dominion University1.630.2%1st Place
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5.89Christopher Newport University0.790.1%1st Place
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4.41George Washington University1.390.1%1st Place
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2.63U. S. Naval Academy2.200.3%1st Place
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9.54Christopher Newport University-0.540.0%1st Place
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10.5William and Mary-0.820.0%1st Place
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7.99St. Mary's College of Maryland0.060.0%1st Place
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10.08University of Maryland-0.660.0%1st Place
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8.2Hampton University-0.040.0%1st Place
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10.36Virginia Tech-0.810.0%1st Place
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10.36Virginia Tech-0.810.0%1st Place
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10.33American University-0.850.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Murphy | 6.1% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Cash Espinoza | 3.7% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| Liam Christopher | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Marina Conde | 18.1% | 16.6% | 17.8% | 14.6% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 6.2% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 12.4% | 15.9% | 14.3% | 13.5% | 12.5% | 10.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen MacWilliams | 32.5% | 24.3% | 17.9% | 10.5% | 7.5% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Hubbard | 1.8% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 10.7% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Finian Knight | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 13.7% | 15.0% | 20.7% | 0.0% |
| Lillian Rippel | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| Eli Leopold | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 13.1% | 14.2% | 15.6% | 0.0% |
| Ivet Bejar | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| Ray McDonald | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 17.4% | 19.0% | 0.0% |
| Ray McDonald | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 17.4% | 19.0% | 0.0% |
| Brooke Lorson | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 18.4% | 18.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.