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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.38+2.46vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97+3.93vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.20+1.08vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.13+3.79vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+3.68vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.72-0.86vs Predicted
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7George Washington University0.93+0.19vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.04-3.44vs Predicted
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9Princeton University-0.32+2.44vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67-2.14vs Predicted
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11Washington College0.20-1.09vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University0.95-4.18vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University0.65-4.22vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College-1.22-1.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.46Cornell University2.3822.8%1st Place
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5.93Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.978.5%1st Place
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4.08Georgetown University2.2016.3%1st Place
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7.79Fordham University1.134.9%1st Place
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8.68U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.293.1%1st Place
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5.14University of Pennsylvania1.7211.3%1st Place
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7.19George Washington University0.935.0%1st Place
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4.56U. S. Naval Academy2.0413.8%1st Place
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11.44Princeton University-0.321.0%1st Place
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7.86St. Mary's College of Maryland0.673.9%1st Place
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9.91Washington College0.201.9%1st Place
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7.82Old Dominion University0.954.4%1st Place
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8.78Christopher Newport University0.652.6%1st Place
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12.36SUNY Maritime College-1.220.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bridget Green | 22.8% | 20.2% | 15.5% | 12.2% | 10.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Heather Kerns | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Piper Holthus | 16.3% | 17.1% | 15.2% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 5.1% | 1.5% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 8.4% | 4.5% |
| Torrey Chisari | 11.3% | 11.1% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 13.8% | 13.4% | 13.1% | 14.1% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 12.8% | 26.1% | 26.1% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 1.5% |
| Kennedy Jones | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 12.5% | 15.4% | 16.6% | 9.8% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 5.1% | 1.4% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 11.7% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 9.9% | 3.9% |
| Eva Leggett | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 18.6% | 50.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.