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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.79+2.93vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy1.18+3.96vs Predicted
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3Fordham University0.71+3.68vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University0.97+1.93vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+1.53vs Predicted
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6Christopher Newport University-0.84+1.69vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University1.86-2.77vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.45-2.16vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10+0.23vs Predicted
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10George Washington University0.03-1.20vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83-4.58vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.97-0.54vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College-0.27-3.40vs Predicted
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14Washington College-1.79-1.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.93Cornell University1.7918.5%1st Place
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5.96U. S. Naval Academy1.188.9%1st Place
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6.68Fordham University0.716.7%1st Place
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5.93Old Dominion University0.978.2%1st Place
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6.53Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.918.0%1st Place
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7.69Christopher Newport University-0.845.8%1st Place
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4.23Georgetown University1.8617.9%1st Place
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5.84University of Pennsylvania1.459.3%1st Place
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9.23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.102.4%1st Place
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8.8George Washington University0.033.1%1st Place
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6.42St. Mary's College of Maryland0.837.3%1st Place
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11.46Princeton University-0.971.2%1st Place
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9.6SUNY Maritime College-0.272.3%1st Place
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12.69Washington College-1.790.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia Devling | 18.5% | 17.4% | 14.9% | 13.2% | 11.3% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Ava Farley | 8.9% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 0.3% |
| Gianna Dewey | 8.2% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 0.4% |
| Laura Smith | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 5.4% | 1.6% |
| Kelly Bates | 17.9% | 15.8% | 13.9% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Madeleine Rice | 9.3% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Katherine Mason | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 16.6% | 13.2% | 5.5% |
| Eva Wieting | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 13.3% | 13.4% | 10.2% | 3.2% |
| Lina Carper | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 8.2% | 12.8% | 28.5% | 25.9% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 15.7% | 16.1% | 6.1% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 17.8% | 56.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.