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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University0.71+5.51vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University0.97+3.91vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.79+0.95vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University1.86+0.34vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy1.18+0.78vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.45-0.11vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10+2.26vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-1.45vs Predicted
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9Washington College-1.79+3.70vs Predicted
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10George Washington University0.03-1.24vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83-4.46vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.97-0.59vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University-0.84-5.18vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College-0.27-4.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.51Fordham University0.718.0%1st Place
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5.91Old Dominion University0.977.9%1st Place
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3.95Cornell University1.7918.8%1st Place
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4.34Georgetown University1.8617.0%1st Place
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5.78U. S. Naval Academy1.189.2%1st Place
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5.89University of Pennsylvania1.458.4%1st Place
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9.26U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.103.0%1st Place
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6.55Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.917.4%1st Place
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12.7Washington College-1.790.6%1st Place
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8.76George Washington University0.033.2%1st Place
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6.54St. Mary's College of Maryland0.837.5%1st Place
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11.41Princeton University-0.971.2%1st Place
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7.82Christopher Newport University-0.844.9%1st Place
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9.58SUNY Maritime College-0.272.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lizzie Cochran | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Gianna Dewey | 7.9% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Sophia Devling | 18.8% | 18.0% | 14.5% | 12.2% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Bates | 17.0% | 14.5% | 12.8% | 12.5% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ava Farley | 9.2% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Madeleine Rice | 8.4% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Katherine Mason | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 12.9% | 16.2% | 12.6% | 5.4% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 8.5% | 17.9% | 57.1% |
| Eva Wieting | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 13.1% | 14.6% | 9.4% | 2.9% |
| Lina Carper | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 29.9% | 24.4% |
| Laura Smith | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 5.1% | 1.5% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 10.5% | 13.7% | 15.7% | 15.3% | 6.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.