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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.77+2.93vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.79+2.05vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University1.86+1.55vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+2.85vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University0.97+0.95vs Predicted
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6Christopher Newport University-0.84+1.94vs Predicted
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7Fordham University0.71-0.25vs Predicted
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8George Washington University0.03+1.02vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy1.18-2.99vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83-3.44vs Predicted
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11Princeton University-0.97+0.70vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10-2.61vs Predicted
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13Washington College-1.79-0.39vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College-0.27-4.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.93University of Pennsylvania1.7718.6%1st Place
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4.05Cornell University1.7917.0%1st Place
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4.55Georgetown University1.8613.5%1st Place
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6.85Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.916.4%1st Place
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5.95Old Dominion University0.978.1%1st Place
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7.94Christopher Newport University-0.844.5%1st Place
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6.75Fordham University0.717.2%1st Place
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9.02George Washington University0.032.5%1st Place
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6.01U. S. Naval Academy1.189.7%1st Place
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6.56St. Mary's College of Maryland0.836.6%1st Place
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11.7Princeton University-0.970.5%1st Place
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9.39U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.102.2%1st Place
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12.61Washington College-1.791.1%1st Place
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9.67SUNY Maritime College-0.272.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia Segalla | 18.6% | 17.0% | 15.2% | 13.1% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Devling | 17.0% | 16.7% | 14.2% | 13.6% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Bates | 13.5% | 14.1% | 14.1% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Gianna Dewey | 8.1% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Laura Smith | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 10.2% | 5.5% | 1.3% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| Eva Wieting | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 12.0% | 14.4% | 13.5% | 10.3% | 3.6% |
| Ava Farley | 9.7% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Lina Carper | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 14.8% | 28.3% | 27.3% |
| Katherine Mason | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 13.2% | 17.4% | 13.6% | 3.7% |
| Laurel Krause | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 8.0% | 18.9% | 55.8% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 12.9% | 16.0% | 15.2% | 7.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.