Race 3A

2025-nicholas-barnett

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Lucca Antonietti 21.6% 19.1% 15.2% 11.8% 9.1% 8.8% 5.5% 4.3% 1.9% 1.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Noah Reischmann 8.0% 11.0% 8.4% 10.2% 10.0% 9.6% 10.3% 10.0% 8.3% 5.8% 4.3% 2.4% 1.2% 0.5%
Matteo Asscher 6.0% 5.4% 7.6% 6.6% 7.9% 6.0% 10.0% 9.7% 8.8% 10.8% 8.2% 7.1% 4.8% 1.1%
Ethan Burt 12.4% 14.3% 13.6% 12.6% 10.9% 9.9% 8.3% 6.5% 5.8% 2.1% 2.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%
Caeden Nodurft 6.1% 7.4% 9.4% 10.1% 10.1% 9.2% 9.9% 7.6% 9.0% 8.3% 5.9% 3.5% 2.6% 0.9%
Shea McGrath 6.4% 4.9% 7.4% 8.5% 9.8% 9.6% 8.6% 8.1% 10.4% 8.6% 6.9% 5.8% 4.2% 0.8%
Max Teo 18.5% 16.4% 13.2% 13.7% 12.4% 8.6% 6.1% 5.0% 2.6% 2.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1%
Amanda Yolles 3.1% 3.9% 3.7% 4.2% 5.5% 5.8% 4.7% 7.1% 7.9% 10.0% 12.6% 11.5% 11.7% 8.3%
Bradley Kirkpatrick 6.0% 5.6% 5.9% 7.7% 6.8% 10.6% 10.4% 9.3% 8.3% 11.0% 6.7% 7.4% 3.1% 1.2%
Wilfred Hynes 1.8% 1.9% 1.8% 1.9% 2.0% 2.7% 4.2% 6.1% 6.4% 8.0% 10.5% 12.0% 17.9% 22.8%
Ian Peterson 1.2% 1.0% 1.6% 0.9% 2.4% 2.2% 2.3% 3.7% 4.4% 6.4% 8.0% 11.7% 17.1% 37.1%
Simone Ford 2.4% 2.8% 3.7% 3.2% 4.7% 5.7% 5.8% 7.8% 9.4% 11.4% 10.3% 11.6% 12.3% 8.9%
Will Eggena 4.6% 4.3% 5.2% 6.2% 5.5% 7.1% 8.7% 8.5% 9.8% 9.2% 10.7% 10.3% 6.5% 3.4%
Kevin McNeill 1.9% 2.0% 3.3% 2.4% 2.9% 4.2% 5.2% 6.3% 7.0% 4.9% 12.0% 14.9% 18.2% 14.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.