← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of Pennsylvania1.77+2.85vs Predicted
-
2Georgetown University1.86+2.64vs Predicted
-
3Cornell University1.79+1.09vs Predicted
-
4Christopher Newport University-0.84+3.92vs Predicted
-
5U. S. Naval Academy1.18+0.96vs Predicted
-
6Old Dominion University0.97-0.05vs Predicted
-
7Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-0.27vs Predicted
-
8St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83-1.31vs Predicted
-
9George Washington University0.03-0.12vs Predicted
-
10Princeton University-0.97+1.54vs Predicted
-
11Fordham University0.71-3.99vs Predicted
-
12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10-2.70vs Predicted
-
13SUNY Maritime College-0.27-3.21vs Predicted
-
14Washington College-1.79-1.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.85University of Pennsylvania1.7720.2%1st Place
-
4.64Georgetown University1.8613.9%1st Place
-
4.09Cornell University1.7915.7%1st Place
-
7.92Christopher Newport University-0.844.2%1st Place
-
5.96U. S. Naval Academy1.188.9%1st Place
-
5.95Old Dominion University0.979.8%1st Place
-
6.73Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.917.3%1st Place
-
6.69St. Mary's College of Maryland0.836.9%1st Place
-
8.88George Washington University0.032.8%1st Place
-
11.54Princeton University-0.970.9%1st Place
-
7.01Fordham University0.715.1%1st Place
-
9.3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.102.2%1st Place
-
9.79SUNY Maritime College-0.271.8%1st Place
-
12.65Washington College-1.790.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia Segalla | 20.2% | 17.0% | 14.5% | 14.3% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Bates | 13.9% | 12.8% | 13.5% | 13.2% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Sophia Devling | 15.7% | 17.2% | 16.0% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Laura Smith | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 5.3% | 1.4% |
| Ava Farley | 8.9% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Gianna Dewey | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| Lina Carper | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Eva Wieting | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 13.4% | 13.0% | 10.3% | 3.0% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 9.7% | 13.8% | 29.3% | 24.6% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 0.2% |
| Katherine Mason | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 14.0% | 15.8% | 12.6% | 4.5% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 17.9% | 16.6% | 6.8% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 17.3% | 58.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.