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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University1.86+3.41vs Predicted
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2Christopher Newport University-0.84+6.01vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.77+0.91vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+2.89vs Predicted
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5Fordham University0.71+1.90vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University0.97-0.01vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College-0.27+2.68vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83-1.38vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy1.18-2.97vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.79-5.91vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10-1.73vs Predicted
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12George Washington University0.03-2.95vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.97-1.49vs Predicted
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14Washington College-1.79-1.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.41Georgetown University1.8616.0%1st Place
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8.01Christopher Newport University-0.844.0%1st Place
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3.91University of Pennsylvania1.7718.1%1st Place
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6.89Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.916.3%1st Place
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6.9Fordham University0.715.2%1st Place
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5.99Old Dominion University0.978.8%1st Place
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9.68SUNY Maritime College-0.272.6%1st Place
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6.62St. Mary's College of Maryland0.837.1%1st Place
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6.03U. S. Naval Academy1.187.3%1st Place
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4.09Cornell University1.7917.4%1st Place
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9.27U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.102.9%1st Place
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9.05George Washington University0.032.6%1st Place
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11.51Princeton University-0.971.2%1st Place
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12.65Washington College-1.790.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Bates | 16.0% | 14.1% | 14.1% | 12.8% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Laura Smith | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 9.3% | 5.8% | 1.7% |
| Sofia Segalla | 18.1% | 17.2% | 16.0% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Gianna Dewey | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 11.1% | 13.4% | 17.1% | 16.0% | 5.2% |
| Lina Carper | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Ava Farley | 7.3% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Sophia Devling | 17.4% | 16.3% | 13.5% | 13.7% | 11.4% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 11.1% | 13.1% | 15.7% | 13.6% | 3.8% |
| Eva Wieting | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 13.6% | 15.4% | 10.2% | 3.9% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 8.8% | 13.5% | 28.4% | 25.6% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 17.2% | 57.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.