← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Cornell University1.79+3.11vs Predicted
-
2University of Pennsylvania1.77+1.83vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Naval Academy1.18+2.98vs Predicted
-
4George Washington University0.03+5.07vs Predicted
-
5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10+4.24vs Predicted
-
6Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+0.88vs Predicted
-
7Christopher Newport University-0.84+1.00vs Predicted
-
8Fordham University0.71-1.21vs Predicted
-
9Georgetown University1.86-4.58vs Predicted
-
10Old Dominion University0.97-3.75vs Predicted
-
11St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83-4.29vs Predicted
-
12Princeton University-0.97-0.61vs Predicted
-
13SUNY Maritime College-0.27-3.24vs Predicted
-
14Washington College-1.79-1.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.11Cornell University1.7918.8%1st Place
-
3.83University of Pennsylvania1.7719.1%1st Place
-
5.98U. S. Naval Academy1.187.9%1st Place
-
9.07George Washington University0.032.6%1st Place
-
9.24U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.103.0%1st Place
-
6.88Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.916.0%1st Place
-
8.0Christopher Newport University-0.844.5%1st Place
-
6.79Fordham University0.716.3%1st Place
-
4.42Georgetown University1.8614.3%1st Place
-
6.25Old Dominion University0.977.3%1st Place
-
6.71St. Mary's College of Maryland0.836.3%1st Place
-
11.39Princeton University-0.971.1%1st Place
-
9.76SUNY Maritime College-0.272.2%1st Place
-
12.57Washington College-1.790.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia Devling | 18.8% | 15.4% | 14.4% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 19.1% | 17.4% | 14.5% | 14.9% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ava Farley | 7.9% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Eva Wieting | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 13.4% | 15.6% | 10.1% | 4.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 13.7% | 14.4% | 13.3% | 5.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 0.4% |
| Laura Smith | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 5.9% | 1.2% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 0.4% |
| Kelly Bates | 14.3% | 14.6% | 13.4% | 13.0% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gianna Dewey | 7.3% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Lina Carper | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 0.2% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 13.1% | 27.5% | 24.9% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 13.8% | 15.4% | 16.4% | 7.5% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 9.2% | 17.0% | 56.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.