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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University0.71+5.78vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.79+1.91vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.77+0.88vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University0.68+2.79vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University1.86-0.66vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83+0.66vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy1.18-1.06vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-1.20vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College-0.27+0.58vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University-0.84-1.95vs Predicted
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11George Washington University0.03-2.15vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10-2.73vs Predicted
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13Washington College-1.79-0.32vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.97-2.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.78Fordham University0.716.3%1st Place
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3.91Cornell University1.7919.5%1st Place
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3.88University of Pennsylvania1.7718.1%1st Place
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6.79Old Dominion University0.685.9%1st Place
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4.34Georgetown University1.8615.7%1st Place
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6.66St. Mary's College of Maryland0.836.6%1st Place
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5.94U. S. Naval Academy1.188.7%1st Place
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6.8Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.916.3%1st Place
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9.58SUNY Maritime College-0.272.8%1st Place
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8.05Christopher Newport University-0.843.8%1st Place
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8.85George Washington University0.032.3%1st Place
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9.27U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.102.3%1st Place
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12.68Washington College-1.790.5%1st Place
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11.46Princeton University-0.971.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lizzie Cochran | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Sophia Devling | 19.5% | 15.2% | 14.3% | 14.0% | 12.2% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 18.1% | 17.7% | 15.7% | 12.9% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Megan Geith | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Kelly Bates | 15.7% | 14.9% | 13.8% | 13.0% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Lina Carper | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Ava Farley | 8.7% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 12.8% | 15.2% | 15.7% | 6.8% |
| Laura Smith | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 9.7% | 6.0% | 1.5% |
| Eva Wieting | 2.3% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 12.4% | 14.9% | 9.0% | 3.4% |
| Katherine Mason | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 12.9% | 14.8% | 13.4% | 4.7% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 16.3% | 59.2% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 12.2% | 31.5% | 23.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.